Will Iran keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. meets its demands?
Trump says Washington is only semi-negotiating while oil ticks higher, ship diversions rise, and Tehran ties any reopening to a long list of conditions.
Iran is still treating the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, and Monday morning markets are pricing the delay rather than a breakthrough.
CNBC reported that President Donald Trump told Axios he is prepared to let economic pressure build on Tehran instead of launching further military strikes. "We are low-keying it," Trump said. "We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money." He also posted a chart on Truth Social highlighting the collapse of the Iranian rial.
Tehran is not matching that patience with softer terms. A senior Iranian official told MS NOW on Monday that the United States must meet the conditions Iran says are in the June memorandum of understanding, including reparation payments and an end to fighting in Lebanon. CNBC also reported that Tehran wants the naval blockade lifted, American troops withdrawn from the region, and frozen Iranian assets released. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Oman transit-route talks had reached a late stage, while insisting that deal would not reopen the waterway.
The shipping scoreboard is still moving the wrong way. U.S. Central Command said American forces had redirected 55 commercial vessels as of Sunday, up from 35 on Aug. 2, and had disabled two ships and boarded two others for compliance. Shipping tracker Kpler counted just eight confirmed Hormuz crossings last Friday, down 33 percent from the day before. Before the war erupted in February, the strait carried about a quarter of seaborne oil trade and a fifth of global liquefied natural gas.
Oil reacted first. Brent crude futures rose 1.1 percent to $84.45 a barrel on Monday, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1 percent to $78.98, according to CNBC. AP separately framed the global open as mixed equity trade with oil bouncing higher after Wall Street finished last week with gains. Families feel that chain at the pump, in freight costs, and in the grocery aisle long before any diplomatic readout lands.
The region is not quiet either. The United Arab Emirates said Iran launched a missile at an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company tanker trying to transit the strait early Saturday. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis claimed a Sunday attack on a Saudi oil facility and equipment at the Red Sea port of al-Makha.
ING Bank commodities strategist Warren Patterson said there does not seem to be much compromise, which makes a sustainable deal harder, and kept a Brent average forecast near $80 this quarter while warning of substantial risk if talks sour again. For readers, the useful scoreboard is simple: vessel diversions, confirmed crossings, crude prices, and whether either side moves off maximal conditions. Until those change, the strait remains a household energy story as much as a diplomatic one.
Disclosure: This article is general news and market context for public information. It is not investment advice and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or commodity.