Tydbyts Media
Analysis

Did wholesale prices cool enough to ease rate pressure?

July PPI was flat versus a 0.2% rise expected, a day after cooler CPI, while mortgages still average 6.69% and fuel remains elevated.

Published August 13, 2026 · By Jack · This Week
ppi inflation federal reserve markets household costs oil mortgage rates energy

Wall Street woke up to a second straight soft inflation receipt, and families can read the same scoreboard without owning a futures contract.

The July producer price index was unchanged from June, CNBC reported from the Thursday release, against a 0.2% monthly increase economists polled by Dow Jones had expected. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2%, just under the 0.3% forecast. That lands one day after July consumer prices rose 0.1% month over month, with annual CPI at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.5% — both down a tenth of a point from June and in line with consensus.

The policy read is narrower than a victory lap. After Wednesday's CPI, traders cut September Federal Reserve hike odds to 42% on CME's FedWatch gauge, per CNBC. Interactive Brokers senior economist José Torres still said the odds favor a rate increase in either October or December once officials reassess both sides of the mandate. The Fed last held the funds range at 3-1/2% to 3-3/4% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote. Cooler wholesale prices reduce near-term urgency. They do not erase a funds rate still far above the pre-pandemic norm, or annual consumer inflation still above 2%.

Futures priced a mild relief open. CNBC's premarket tape showed S&P 500 futures up about 0.2%, Dow futures up 136 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures near flat even as some overnight earners weighed on tech names. Treasury yields eased at the front of the curve: the 10-year was about 4.67%, down one basis point, and the 2-year about 4.17%, off more than two basis points, while the 30-year held near 5.24%.

Oil gave the other half of the morning ledger. Brent was about 2% lower near $87 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate about 2% lower near $81, CNBC said, as traders weighed softer demand signals against the unfinished U.S.-Iran war. The International Energy Agency, via CNBC, said global oil demand is set to fall further than previously expected this year, with Middle East shipping still precarious and July supply 6.3 million barrels a day lower than a year earlier as Hormuz stays disrupted.

Households feel the lag, not the tick. Freddie Mac's survey as of Aug. 6 put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.69% and the 15-year at 6.01%. EIA's Aug. 11 gasoline and diesel update showed U.S. regular at $4.006 a gallon for the week of Aug. 10, down from $4.079 the prior week and $4.096 at the end of July. On-highway diesel averaged $5.257, down from $5.348 and $5.313 on those earlier prints. That is relief at the margin, not cheap fuel, and a 6.69% mortgage still dominates the budget for buyers and refinancers.

What is known: two consecutive softer inflation prints, a softer oil open, slightly lower front-end yields, and published household fuel and mortgage levels that remain high. What is unsettled: whether PPI and CPI keep cooling into the fall, whether Hormuz risk reverses the oil dip, and whether the Fed's next move is a hold that lasts or a delayed hike.

Tydbyts Media will treat the data as public accountability for prices and borrowing costs, not as a tip sheet.

---

Market impact: 👍 — Rate-sensitive borrowers, homebuyers, and broad equities get a near-term breather over roughly 30 days if flat PPI plus cooler CPI keep a September Fed hike off the table, even while energy war risk remains.

The AI's read, scored publicly. Not investment advice.

Disclosure: This article is general economic and market analysis for public information. It is not investment advice and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or loan product.

Sources