Will gas prices and mortgage rates matter more than stocks today?
Mixed futures, a Hormuz oil rebound, and July retail sales put household costs back beside Thursday record highs.
U.S. equity futures pointed to a muted open Friday as investors waited for the July retail sales report. AP said S&P 500 futures were up 0.1 percent, Dow futures down 0.1 percent, and Nasdaq futures up 0.1 percent. That followed a Thursday session in which U.S. stocks reached all-time highs after July inflation cooled and oil prices declined.
Oil reversed course overnight. Prices rebounded after two UAE/ADNOC tankers were attacked by drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. There were no injuries and only minor damage. The UAE blamed Iran. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center also reported two vessels with minor damage. Brent crude rose 24 cents to $87.31 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark climbed almost 1 percent to $81.83.
Those moves feed directly into fuel costs households already feel. AP reported the average U.S. gasoline price rose overnight to $4.08 a gallon, 92 cents higher than a year earlier. Higher gasoline, alongside groceries, has left consumers more careful with spending as those categories claim larger shares of paychecks.
Mortgage rates offered little fresh relief. Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed rate stood at 6.67 percent, down from 6.69 percent the prior week yet still above 6.58 percent a year earlier. The 15-year rate was 5.96 percent.
Friday's retail sales figures will show whether that caution appeared in July after shoppers already slowed spending in June compared with May. The data arrive with markets cheering cooler inflation, but also with fresh uncertainty from Hormuz and the crude rebound.
What is known: futures were mixed ahead of the data; equities hit records Thursday; two tankers sustained minor drone damage with no injuries; gasoline averaged $4.08; benchmark crudes moved higher; 30-year mortgage rates eased slightly week over week but remained above year-ago levels; and June retail activity had already decelerated.
What remains uncertain: the July retail sales print itself, how markets will price any surprise, whether the tanker attacks produce lasting supply effects, and how quickly household budgets adjust if gasoline stays elevated while mortgage rates hover near current readings.
For households the immediate stakes sit in the weekly fuel fill-up, the grocery bill, and the cost of financing a home, not in the precise level of overnight futures. Retail sales will offer one more receipt on whether those pressures are already slowing spending. Markets have priced the inflation improvement; they have not yet priced the full retail outcome or any sustained oil-supply disruption.